Morning Roundup

By Mark Masterson on April 8, 2026

Good morning,

Below are the news items moving markets today:

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Executive Summary

Wednesday should start with a bang as the hoped for/anticipated ceasefire agreement has sparked a sharp rally in most assets.

Oil prices are down 20% to the $90 level.  (still too high – but much needed relief)

Equities, bonds, precious metals – all rally as the US Dollar falls sharply.

Before we jump in…..If you missed the Market and Commentary Video published on Thursday – you can find it here…..  https://naples.hightoweradvisors.com/blogs/market-commentary/hightower-naples-market-and-economic-commentary-april-2026-winds-of-change

In this video market update…

• Update to the 4 Horsemen… Looking quite “Neutral”
• How it started / How it’s going… Winds of change in the economy
• Oil price surges and its impact on the economy
• Is the Fed boxed in?
• Stagflation risk is rising… What is the impact?
• Capital markets update – Winds of Change in what is performing in 2026
• Mid-term election years are notoriously volatile – but typically end well
• A look at commodities and why it may just be time for outperformance and diversification
• Precious metals and the fundamentals
• The dollar remains “the most important chart in the world”

Here are the key events this week:

• Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
• February PCE Inflation data – Thursday
• US Q4 2025 GDP data – Thursday
• March CPI Inflation data – Friday
• April MI Inflation Expectations data – Friday
• April MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday

On to the ceasefire…..

As we know, President Trump agreed to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks:

• On Truth Social, President Trump announced he accepted Pakistan’s proposal to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks, conditional on Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• With military objectives already achieved, reasserted they are “very far along” with a long-term peace plan. Acknowledged Iran’s 10-point proposal as a workable basis for negotiation. CNN reported Israel also agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
• Trump said almost all points have already been agreed between the US and Iran, though Iran’s 10-point plan reportedly calls for continued nuclear enrichment, control over Hormuz, removal of all US sanctions, and withdrawal of US military from the Middle East (Times of Israel).

The news has sparked a broad relief rally in equities and a sharp selloff in crude and the US dollar.

We now need to see the narrative continue and get follow through on the ceasefire.  This mornings posts and comments look promising on that front.

• Iran to demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for passage through Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep control during the 2-week ceasefire — Financial Times
• Trump says US will work closely with Iran; will be talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran
• Trump posted on Truth Social: The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to.
• SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL:  IRAN COULD OPEN HORMUZ ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AHEAD OF MEETING WITH U.S. IN PAKISTAN IF CEASEFIRE FRAMEWORK REACHED
• Trump: “We are talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to… There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried Nuclear Dust”
• Trump posts that if a country supplies weapons to Iran it will “be immediately tariffed” 50% on all goods sold to U.S., with no exceptions.
• VANCE SAYS IF IRANIANS DON’T ENGAGE IN GOOD FAITH THEY’RE GOING TO FIND OUT THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOT ONE TO MESS AROUND

Rising markets are common in April.  Remember, April is historically one of the best months of the year for stocks:

• Over the last 25 years, the MSCI World Index has posted positive returns 75% of the time in April.
• Over this period, the average monthly return has been +2.0%, the strongest of any month.
• This has been particularly driven by US stocks, which have a ~70% weight in the index.
• Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained +1.3% on average in April since 1928, the 2nd-best month of the year after July.
• This is also double the overall monthly average return of +0.7%.

4 7 26

More below in the charts……

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Articles of Interest:

• Iran ceasefire:
  • US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire, allowing for potential reopening of Strait of Hormuz (Axios, link, Politico, FT, NYTimes)
  • US-Iran peace talks set for Friday in Pakistan, sources say (Axios, Bloomberg)
  • Despite ceasefire agreement, core conflicts remain unresolved (NY Times, Bloomberg )
  • Iran’s 10-point plan to end the war includes US acceptance of uranium enrichment, lifting all sanctions, Iranian control over Strait of Hormuz (Times of Israel)
  • Israel backs Trump’s two-week suspension of strikes against Iran, but says ceasefire excludes Lebanon (Reuters , CNBC , CBS )
  • Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran evolved through Situation Room meetings; White House did not plan on sustaining a protracted campaign (NY Times )
• Energy:
  • Trump announces US assistance in Strait of Hormuz to ensure smooth operations during ceasefire (Reuters )
  • Iranian officials say military will oversee Strait of Hormuz passage during the ceasefire (CNN )
• Markets:
  • Oil slides, stocks surge and Treasuries rise following ceasefire agreement ((Axios, Bloomberg, Reuters)
  • Macro hedge funds faced significant losses in March (Bloomberg )
  • Big funds buy Treasuries and AI stocks, signaling confidence as Iran war risks recede (Bloomberg )
  • Insurers’ $1T investment in private credit raises regulatory concerns (link )
  • PE firms increasingly focus on second-hand deals, chasing assets in the growing secondaries market (FT )
• Washington:
  • Democrats achieve significant gains in key battlegrounds, winning Wisconsin and narrowing GOP margins in Georgia’s red district (Politico , NYTimes)

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Charts of the day:

There were signs of a market bottom.

The surge yesterday in put volume tends to mark market bottoms, and the recent surge in puts was the third largest on record.

Remember, buying puts is a bet on markets moving lower.  When it gets this extreme, too many people are making the same bet.

Lance Roberts 4 7 26

In the short term, valuations have pulled back to a likely bounce spot. 

• “Valuations across U.S. equities have reset meaningfully, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now trading at the lower end of their recent ranges.
• SPX forward P/E is now ~19.5x, below the 5-year average ~20.1x and in the sub-6th percentile of the past year’s range.”

– Scott Rubner 4 7 26

Yet – valuations longer term are too high.  Don’t forget that.

Also – investors are holding the most in stocks in 60+ years……

The current level is the highest since the Nifty Fifty era.

“When things go too far in one direction, they must eventually correct”.

Howard Marks

4 8 26

Diversification has been tough without commodities…..

The traditional 60/40 with stocks/bonds has not helped this year…..

“The 60/40 portfolio’s 3.7% decline in March was its second-worst month on a total return basis since September 2022, when inflation was above 8%” -JPMorgan AM

Daily Chartbook 4 8 26

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Quote of the day:

“Brilliance is the ability to simplify a mass amount of information into a simple yes/no decision.”

— Warren Buffett