Morning Roundup

By Mark Masterson on November 18, 2025

Good morning,

Below are the news items moving markets today:

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Executive Summary

On to Tuesday after a rather bloody day across capital markets yesterday…..

We do get some economic data and big tech earnings this week….. Here are the key events for the week:

• Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
• Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings – Wednesday
• September Jobs Report – Thursday
• Philly Fed Manufacturing data – Thursday
• October Existing Home Sales data- Thursday
• November Services PMI data – Friday
• November Manufacturing PMI data – Friday
• MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
• MI Inflation Expectations data – Friday
• Total of 14 Fed Speaker Events This Week

It looks like the latest ADP jobs data was a little better, and the initial jobless claims were a little worse…..

• In its latest preliminary release, ADP estimated average job losses of 2.5K/week for the four weeks through 1-Nov; contrasts with the 11.25K/week average reported last week for the four weeks ended 25-Oct.
• US initial jobless claims reached 232K for w/e 18-Oct while continuing claims rose slightly to 1.957M (Bloomberg)

I look at the markets below in the charts -but one thing remains….investors in the latest Global Fund Manager survey are bullish….

• BofA’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey again offered bullish view, with FMS sentiment highest since February, equity allocation highest in nine months, while FMS cash level dropped 0.1pp to 3.7%, Bull & Bear Indicator held at 6.3.
• However, discretionary stock allocation cut by most since 2005, falling to lowest since Dec-22, while tech exposure fell by most in eight months.
• Long Mag 7 displaced gold as most crowded trade, while AI bubble again biggest tail risk, up 12pp to 45%.
• Net 20% of FMS investors say companies are overinvesting, the first time since Aug-05 a majority saw overinvestment, driven by jump in concerns over AI capex boom, though 53% say AI already increasing productivity.
• On 2026, 42% see international equities best performing asset class vs 22% for US equities. On the S&P 500, 43% investors expect year-end price in 7000-7500 range, or a gain of 5-12%.
• Views come as strategists have offered mixed outlooks, with some seeing short-term headwinds, potential for further correction into year-end, though Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies have set 2026 S&P price targets calling for double-digit gains from current levels.

This is also reflected in the very low levels of cash on hand.  Only 3.7% is one of the lowest levels in 30 years

11 18 25

A few interesting items…..

Again, Trump says he will send out stimulus checks.  Yes, they are called tariff dividends, but in reality – they are stimulus checks.  What is unknown is if the tariffs will be overturned by the Supreme Court…..

• Trump announces $2,000 tariff dividend checks starting mid-2026, but requires unclear congressional approval (Axios)

Today is the vote to release the Epstein files.  Trump flipped on it – suggesting they release it.  Many suspect they will not be released citing the just launched investigation (last week) as reason to keep them under wraps.  We will see.

• Trump’s reversal on the Epstein files undermines Speaker Johnson’s efforts (Axios, link)

The Kobeissi letter highlights how much stimulating is going on out there…..

1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks

2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package

3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package

4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st

5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year

6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program

7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion

8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months

Wow.

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Articles of Interest:

• Markets:
  • BofA November FMS shows investors increased equities and commodities but cash holdings fell triggering a “sell signal” (Reuters)
  • S&P 500’s move below 50-day moving average fuels concerns market could head into correction (Bloomberg, Bloomberg)
  • Japan stocks and bonds declin amid diplomatic tensions with Beijing and worries over fiscal health and tech valuations (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Finance Minister Katayama strengthens warning against yen’s ongoing depreciation (Bloomberg)
  • Bitcoin’s drop below $90K intensified selling pressure in Asia’s markets with significant losses reported (Bloomberg, FT)
• Central banks:
  • Fed Governor Waller reiterates support for December rate cut, citing weak labor market (CNBC )
  • Fed Governor Cook offers first detailed defense against allegations of mortgage fraud (Bloomberg)
• Washington:
  • Trump emphasizes price reductions and economic growth; thanks McDonald’s for cuts (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Geopolitics:
  • Trump confirms plans to sell Saudi Arabia F35 fighter jets ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed’s visit to White House (Politico)
  • Trump raises prospect of strikes against drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia, won’t rule out troops in Venezuela (Washington Post)

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Charts of the day:

Yearly returns for Bitcoin……

You can see that many assets have pulled back from their highs….

Here are some numbers….

% Below 52-Week High

• Google: -3%
• Apple: -4%
• S&P 500: -4%
• Gold: -8%
• Microsoft: -9%
• Amazon: -10%
• Nvidia: -12%
• Tesla: -16%
• Palantir: -18%
• Meta: -25%
• Bitcoin: -29%
• Ethereum: -40%
• Coinbase: -41%
• MicroStrategy: -64%
• Dogecoin: -69%
• Fartcoin: -90%
• Trump Coin: -91%
• Melania Coin: -99%

Charlie Bilello 11 18 25

Yet, the S&P 500 has had nothing but a routine pullback to the 50 day moving average thus far.

You can see in the chart below that it is very common for the market to pull back to the blue line (50 day moving average).

The red line (the 200 day moving average) is more important to determine the health of a bull run, or the turning into a bear market.

Nvidia is now valued at nearly three times the entire energy sector.

Almost three times.

And no, it doesn’t generate more profit than energy companies in the S&P 500.

In fact, the combined free cash flow of this sector over the last year is about 20% higher than Nvidia’s.

Tavi Costa 11 18 25

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Quote of the day:

Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving

Warren Buffett