Morning Roundup

By Mark Masterson on October 31, 2025

Good morning,

Below are the news items moving markets today:

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Executive Summary

Happy Friday!

It’s been an amazing week of ups and downs.

• Fed meeting.
• Big Tech Earnings
• Trump/Xi meeting

Markets look to finish the week on a positive note after positive tech results ease concerns about a China slowdown.

No meaningful developments yet on the government shutdown front:

• Talks still going nowhere as government shutdown stretches toward record: Still no concrete movement on resolving US government shutdown as it nears the 35-day record from 2019.
• Senate Majority Leader Thune said earlier this week talks were picking up (Politico), but yesterday Senate adjourned for the weekend with nothing on the horizon (The Hill).
• Potential suspension of SNAP benefits beginning 1-Nov has been seen as a pain point possibly sparking a deal, though MA judge overseeing case brought by 23 Democratic AGs suggested yesterday she would order use of emergency funds to partially fund program (Washington Post).
• With Democrats continuing to oppose Republicans’ continuing resolutions, Trump urging GOP Senators to eliminate the filibuster, which would allow passage of bills on solely a party-line vote (Axios).
• Note many Senate Republicans have resisted this move and it is unlikely there is enough support to change the rule.
• Meanwhile, impacts from the shutdown continue to pile up, with airport delays due to absences by unpaid air traffic controllers one of the higher-profile issues (NY Times).

While the economic data and GDP expectations remain solid, we are seeing a pickup in layoffs…..

Major layoffs announced in 2025:

• UPS: 48,000 employees

• Amazon: up to 30,000 employees

• Intel: 24,000 employees

• Nestlé: 16,000 employees

• Accenture: 11,000 employees

• Ford: 11,000 employees

• Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees

• Microsoft: 9,000 employees

• Chevron: 8,000 employees

• Estée Lauder: 7,000 employees

• Procter & Gamble: 7,000 employees

• PwC: 5,600 employees

• Salesforce: 4,000 employees

• US Cellular: 4,100 employees

• Meta: 3,600 employees

• Paramount: 3,000 employees

• Oracle: 3,000 employees

• ConocoPhillips: 3,000 employees

• Santander US: 2,000 employees

• Hewlett Packard: 2,000 employees

• Morgan Stanley: 2,000 employees

• Target: 1,800 employees

• Workday: 1,750 employees

• General Motors: 1,700 employees

• Dow Inc.: 1,500 employees

• Walmart: 1,500 employees

• Applied Materials: 1,444 employees

• Blue Origin: 1,400 employees

• Goldman Sachs: 1,395 employees

• Indeed and Glassdoor: 1,300 employees

• Starbucks: 1,100 employees

• International Paper Co.: 1,100 employees

• Kroger: 1,000 employees

• Spirit Airlines: 1,000 employees

Henrik Zeberg 10 31 25

Yesterday Treasury Secretary Bessent made the below comment….

• Scott Bessent: I think we’re going to have parallel prosperity next year on Main Street, Wall Street

There is some work to do on that front.

How about the below stats that suggest there is a disconnect between reality for many Americans, and the stock market results…..

• Currently, ~82% of the US population lives in regions experiencing an economic recession, the highest share since 2020.
• The analysis uses the Fed Beige Book, a report published 8 times a year based on anecdotal information gathered from businesses, economists, and market contacts from the 12 Fed districts.
• The percentage has DOUBLED since the start of 2025.
• Over the last 20 years, only 2008 and 2020 saw such a large share of the country in recession.
• Meanwhile, the latest Atlanta Fed estimate for real US GDP growth in Q3 2025 is +3.9%.

10 31 25

If you watched the move “The Big Short” – you are familiar with Michael Burry.  He made his fame shorting the housing market in 2007 and was played by Christian Bale in the movie.

He is widely followed on X/Twitter. 

He just posted this on X last night…..

Sometimes, we see bubbles.

Sometimes, there is something to do about it.

Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.

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Articles of Interest:

• Corporate:
  • Amazon reports larger-than-expected acceleration in AWS revenue, marking fastest rate of growth since 2022 (Bloomberg)
  • Apple CEO Tim Cook predicts strong iPhone sales during holiday season after China delays and supply constraints impacted Q4 (Reuters)
  • Nvidia’s Huang says he still hopes to sell Blackwell chips to China, despite Trump not bringing up topic with Xi (Bloomberg)
  • Meta sees very strong demand for its $30B bond sale, suggesting investors are looking past concerns about AI spending plans (Bloomberg)
  • Big tech firms planning to spend $400B into AI efforts this year, but say it’s not enough (link)
• Markets:
  • S&P’s nears 7,000 mark as investors eye AI and rate risks (Bloomberg)
  • Barclays halts ECB rate cut predictions until 2027, citing steady policy amid Euro zone resilience (Reuters)
• Trade/tariffs:
  • US-China trade thaw offers Europe temporary relief but risks marginalizing EU priorities on Ukraine and raw materials (Politico)
  • USTR Greer says Sec. 301 probe into China’s compliance with 2020 trade deal will continue (Bloomberg)
• Central banks:
  • Fed’s rate cuts fail to boost US economy, signaling potential December pause (Reuters)
  • Fed governor Bowman proposes 30% cut to bank supervision unit amid streamlining push (Reuters)
• Geopolitics:
  • Trump-Putin Budapest summit scrapped over Russia’s inflexible Ukraine demands, signaling US policy reversal (FT)
• Washington:
  • Trump urges Senate to nuke filibuster to avert prolonged US government shutdown (Reuters)
  • Federal judge suggests she will order federal government to use reserves to partially fund SNAP (Washington Post)

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Charts of the day:

Sentiment follows price…..

The below chart illustrates that perfectly. 

Active managers reduced their equity exposure down to 35% back in April when the S&P 500 fell below 5,000.

This week, their equity exposure jumped over 100% (leveraged long) with the S&P 500 at 6,900. This is their highest equity exposure since July 2024

Tech is pulling the market higher.

It has been quite a narrow rally lately.  Notice below that fewer than 46% of S&P 500 stocks are currently trading above their 100-day moving average, the worst market breadth since early May

10 31 25

Quite the disconnect between stocks and Bitcoin. (bitcoin in red/ S&P 500 in blue)

They do tend to follow each other – although bitcoin does follow the Nasdaq much closer.

How will the current gap close?  Stocks decline or bitcoin rally?

10 31 25

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Quote of the day:

“As long as they are in, they have a strong pecuniary commitment to belief in the unique personal intelligence that tells them there will be yet more.”

– John Kenneth Galbraith

A Short History of Financial Euphoria