In Case You Missed It: Key Charts of the Week:

By Mark Masterson on December 26, 2025

A picture is worth a thousand words……

Below are the Key Charts of the Week:

Those stimulus checks – potentially coming while we run Trillion dollar deficits, the economy is growing, the market is at/near all time highs, and the Fed is cutting rates – are designed to push the consumer off the lows.

The current sentiment out there for consumers is downright gloomy…..

It’s below the levels we saw in 2009.

Its below the levels we saw in 1980.

Its below the 2000 levels.

What is going on?

Michigan Consumer sentiment index 12 22 25

I suspect it’s the compounded impact of inflation from the past 5 years.  It went up 25-30%, and has not reversed.  Yes, it is growing more slowly now at 3% or so – but it is still growing.

Perhaps the surge in money supply is causing the rise in inflation.

It’s a global event – take a look…..

• Global money supply is now up to a record $45 trillion.
• This comes as China’s M1 money supply has risen to $16.5 trillion, an all-time high.
• China has driven the majority of global money supply growth this year.
• China is currently the largest producer of narrow money in the world, accounting for ~37% of the total.
• Meanwhile, the US M1 money supply, excluding savings deposits, is up to a record $8 trillion, representing ~18% of the world’s total.

In case you are wondering – what is M1:

• M1 is the narrowest measure of the money supply, representing the most liquid forms of money used for daily transactions, primarily physical currency (coins and bills) and checkable deposits like demand deposits (checking accounts). It also includes other liquid deposits like NOW accounts (negotiable order of withdrawal) and ATS accounts (automatic transfer service). M1 is crucial for tracking immediate spending power and economic activity, with its definition updated by the Fed to include savings accounts due to increased liquidity.
• Components of M1
  • Currency: Coins and paper money in circulation (outside banks and the Treasury).
  • Demand Deposits: Funds in checking accounts.
  • Other Checkable Deposits (OCDs): Includes NOW accounts, ATS accounts, and share draft accounts at credit unions.
  • Other Liquid Deposits: Savings deposits and money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) are now included due to increased accessibility.

Price to sales is not something tracked too often.

But – did you know that more than 30% U.S. market cap trades above 10x sales.

You can see where that ranks since the 1960’s…..

About the Fed….Trump has made it clear that he expects his new Fed Chairman to cut rates – and “ probably a by a lot.”

This old Trump tweet isn’t aging very well……

On to 2026…– here is Wall Streets prediction summary.

Surprise – not a single one expects a down year….

CNBC 12 23 25

As we exit 2025 – a peek at the “most important chart in the world” the US Dollar.

The short rally has faded and the dollar has been heading lower in December.  This has put a tailwind behind stocks, metals and commodities into year end.

Like watching paint dry as the dollar clings to the lower channel line that marks the rise since 2008.

If that lower line breaks, it will break hard in my opinion.

If that channel breaks, I’d look to the low 90’s at least before the dollar can rally.  The weekly chart of the dollar below shows the red line of support.

Investors are adding equities as we end 2025 and enter 2026…..

• Global equity ETFs posted a record +$145 billion in inflows last week.
• The US represented 54% of the total, or +$78 billion, the 2nd-largest weekly inflow on record.
• This was led by the S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, which saw +$59 billion in inflows.
• Global long-only equity funds attracted a record +$46 billion.
• As a result, global equity ETFs are on track for a record +$1.4 trillion in total inflows, +$200 billion more than last year.
• This marks at least the 11th consecutive week of positive inflows.

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Sentiment is hot as we enter 2026…..

Investors are extremely bullish:

• Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator is up +0.6 points over the last few trading days, to 8.5, re-entering extreme bull territory.
• The index measures hedge fund and fund manager positioning, equity and bond flows, and market breadth.
• Readings above 8.0 signal extremely positive market sentiment.
• The gauge is now at its 2nd-highest level since December 2020.
• The indicator has risen +142% since April, driven by strong equity flows, improving market breadth, and aggressive positioning by fund managers in equities.
• By comparison, the record high stood at 9.6 in February 2018.

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Yesterday we had Q3 preliminary data reported well ahead of consensus….

• Preliminary Q3 GDP highest since Q3-2023, coming in at +4.3 vs consensus +3.0 and Q2 final reading of +3.8%;

No doubt it is the result of the full throttle approach from the administration….

• BBB – tax cuts and deregulation
• Run the economy hot via large deficits
• Push liquidity into the system via lower Fed rates
• Start another round of QE (December 12^th)

You can see that Q3 is above average at 4.3%

It’s been a good 25 years for “the pet rock”

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The official Santa Claus Rally period started on Wednesday.  Santa hasn’t come two years in a row, but he’s never missed three years in a row.

And there is no 7-day period that is more likely to be higher than these 7 days (77.3%).

Take a look….

And – another view…..

12 22 25

We are “running it hot” in every way possible.

Tax cuts and deregulation via the BBB

Running $2.5Trillion deficits in current fiscal year (annualized)

Cutting interest rates at the Fed

Adding QE now

Floating Tariff refund checks in 2026 as stimulus

And now the update to US M2 money supply…..

• BREAKING: US M2 money supply rises another +4.3% YoY in November 2025, to a record $22.3 trillion.
• This marks the 21st consecutive monthly increase.
• Money supply is now $400 billion above the March 2022 peak.
• Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average rate of +6.3% per annum.
• Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted M2 rose +1.5% YoY in November, marking its 15th-straight monthly increase.

It’s about liquidity to keep the economy and markets moving higher.  Mid-terms are 11 months out – so I’d expect this to continue….

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